The Real Cost of Waiting to Buy: Why 'Perfect Timing' Might Cost You More
I hear it almost every week: "We're thinking about buying, but maybe we should wait for prices to come down" or "Interest rates might be better next year."
I get it – buying a home is probably the biggest financial decision you'll make, and wanting to time it perfectly makes complete sense.
But here's what I've learned after helping hundreds of families in Iowa find their homes: waiting for the "perfect" market conditions often costs more than buying when you're ready.
The Math Behind the Wait
Let me show you what waiting actually looked like for buyers in Des Moines over the past few years.
In January 2022, the median home price in the Des Moines metro was around $220,000. If you were looking at a typical starter home and decided to wait because you thought prices might drop, here's what happened instead:
January 2022: $220,000 home, 3.5% interest rate
January 2024: Same home now costs $245,000, 6.8% interest rate
That two-year wait didn't just cost you $25,000 in higher home prices. The monthly payment difference is staggering:
2022 scenario: Monthly payment of about $1,580 (principal and interest)
2024 scenario: Monthly payment of about $1,770 (principal and interest)
That's an extra $190 per month, or $2,280 per year – and that's assuming you could even find the same house, which brings me to my next point.
The Opportunity Cost You Don't See
While you're waiting for the market to shift, you're still paying rent. Let's say you're paying $1,200 a month in rent while waiting for that perfect buying opportunity. Over two years, that's $28,800 that built zero equity for your future.
Meanwhile, if you had bought that $220,000 home in 2022, you would have:
Built approximately $8,000 in equity through principal payments
Gained roughly $25,000 in home value appreciation
Saved money on taxes through mortgage interest deductions
The total opportunity cost of waiting? Over $60,000 when you factor in lost equity, appreciation, and continued rent payments.
Why "Timing the Market" is Nearly Impossible
Here's the truth about real estate markets: they don't move like a stock ticker. Even industry experts struggle to predict short-term price movements because so many local factors come into play.
In Iowa, we've seen:
Job growth in Des Moines keeping demand steady
Limited housing inventory maintaining price pressure
Interest rate changes that affect affordability more than home prices
Seasonal fluctuations that have more to do with weather than economics
I've watched buyers wait for a "crash" that never came, while watching home prices continue their steady climb year over year.
When Waiting Actually Makes Sense
Don't get me wrong – there are definitely times when waiting is the smart move:
Your job situation is unstable: If there's a chance you might need to relocate within two years, renting gives you flexibility
You're carrying high-interest debt: Pay off credit cards first – those 18-24% interest rates hurt more than mortgage rates
You haven't saved for a down payment: While there are low-down-payment options, having some savings for closing costs and emergencies is crucial
You're not emotionally ready: Homeownership comes with responsibilities that renting doesn't have
The Best Time to Buy is When You're Ready
Instead of trying to time the market, focus on timing your life. Are you:
Financially stable with steady income?
Planning to stay in the area for at least 3-5 years?
Ready for the responsibilities of homeownership?
Tired of paying someone else's mortgage through rent?
If you answered yes to these questions, you're probably ready to buy, regardless of what interest rates or home prices might do next month.
Making the Numbers Work for You
Even in today's market, there are strategies to make homeownership more affordable:
Look at different neighborhoods: Sometimes moving 10 minutes further out can save you $50,000
Consider starter homes: You don't need your forever home right away
Explore first-time buyer programs: Iowa has several programs that can help with down payments and closing costs
Get pre-approved: This shows sellers you're serious and helps you move quickly when you find the right home
The Bottom Line
Perfect market timing is a myth. What's not a myth is the long-term wealth-building power of homeownership and the personal satisfaction of having a place that's truly yours.
I've helped families buy homes in 2008 during the financial crisis, in 2020 during a pandemic, and in 2022 during record-low inventory. The families who bought when they were ready – rather than when the market was "perfect" – are all glad they made the move.
The best time to buy a home isn't when the market is perfect. It's when you're ready to take that next step in your life.
